Re: Choosing a tram [Was: NSW - what's staying and what's going ...]
  Mark Skinner

The point is Tony that if those concerns about China are valid, then that
trumps (pun intended) the economic issues you mentioned. If we think
there's a chance of serious conflict, we need those industries,
regardless of the cost. That is, if it costs twice as much to build here,
too bad. We need the industry capability, and if cost doubling is the
price, so be it. Then we have to be prepared for the tax increases.

That's why I added the caveat about whether people really are serious about
China. It's just that if they are, then they will support local production
of trams, trains etc etc as part of essential defence capability. If they
aren't, well let's not waste money on subs and planes etc, and spend that
money on trams and trains.

On Wed, 29 Mar 2023, 12:37 pm TP, historyworks@...> wrote:

> Buses definitely have a viable market with a constant flow of orders to

> support a local industry. Defence work is programmed to ensure a constant

> flow. Ferries can be built as part of the output of an existing

> shipbuilding industry that has plenty of other work. Passenger trains and

> trams are difficult because the numbers are small, the product typically

> bespoke for different orders and the flow of orders is sporadic, not helped

> when you have polarised state politics where one party will invest in

> public transport, the other won't. On top of that, with open competitive

> tendering, you need more than one manufacturer and to be open to overseas

> bids, with price usually being the main requirement in tenders. We can

> build trains and trams locally but at huge extra cost, which typically

> impoverishes the public transport budget, unless governments are willing to

> create another budget to subsidise the extra costs.

>

> The concerns about China (and Russia and Iran and North Korea) are

> legitimate. We're in much the same position now as in the mid to late

> 1930s. This time we need to deter it properly or it will all start again

> and it will be much much worse. What I find concerning nowadays is the

> number of people who don't think there's anything worth fighting for.

>

> Tony P

>

> On Wednesday, 29 March 2023 at 11:55:37 UTC+11 Mark Skinner wrote:

>

>> I apologise in advance as the first part of my reply is background and

>> might not seem relevant to trams. However, it feeds in critically.

>>

>>

>> Steel making, heavy and light industry, clothing and footwear,

>> electronics, are all more expensive in Australia. As such, people have

>> done the economically "rational" thing and sent them overseas.

>>

>> However, all of those are essential defence industries.

>>

>> We now have many of the people who sent those industries overseas now

>> wailing about war with China and wanting to spend hundreds of billions on

>> weapons.

>>

>> Presumably, if they really are serious, then bringing back strategic

>> defence industry ought to be something they support.

>>

>> Which means that there ought to be a lot more support for the design and

>> construction of trams, trains, buses locally as part of a reconsidered

>> approach to defence. Of course, that presupposes that the concerns about

>> China are genuine, and not just a cover for buying military toys.

>>

>> I say this as the amounts spent on defence are huge. If we really are

>> serious about China, then spending money on local tram/train production to

>> support defence capability is really cheap in the long term.

>>

>> On Wed, 29 Mar 2023, 10:13 am Matthew Geier, mat...@...>

>> wrote:

>>

>>> On 29/3/23 10:29, Mal Rowe wrote:

>>> > It's more than a decision to keep money at home.

>>> >

>>> > The decision to go for the E and G classes in Melbourne was based on

>>> > hard learnt lessons about getting a tram that is 'fit for purpose'.

>>> >

>>> >

>>> I'm sure Alstom's factories in Spain or India would have turned a G

>>> class to the exact same design if the contract had not specified 'local

>>> content'.

>>>

>>> Bombardier could have built the E in European or Asian factories for

>>> less. It was a conscious political decision to specify 'local content'.

>>> Although the 'local content' on that latest build of trains seems to be

>>> some one what marginal - shipping in complete body shells fabricated in

>>> China doesn't really count IMHO. The local content appears to be

>>> 'assemble a kit from overseas sourced components and sub systems.

>>>

>>> Export our Iron ore and coal to China, get a complete body shell back.

>>>

>>> And when the body cracks, we then find we have no local skills needed to

>>> repair it as their was no ongoing employment for welder/fabricators so

>>> no one apprenticed to the trade.

>>>

>>> At any rate even the new G class is basically a 'kit' using standard

>>> modular designs from existing platforms. It just has a few

>>> 'optimizations' for Melbourne's use case.

>>>

>>>

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