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Roderick

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Thurs.15.7.21 Metro Twitter
Aircraft: No ramp access to platforms until late 2021 (pedestrian-underpass works).
Flinders St: still with a lane closed for tunnel works.
We urge people to travel safely on public transport by keeping updated with the latest Covid19Vic advice & public transport offers before travel, such as registering your myki for a $10 bonus, or discounted fares for off-peak travel. See https://ptovic.com.au/about-us/publications-media/news/public-transport-measures-in-victoria-to-keep-you-connected
- No matter what you say or how many posters you put up people aren’t going to listen about wearing masks on public transport. Either VicGovDH get stricter on the rules or you may as well shut up
15.42 Belgrave line: Major delays after police attended to a trespasser near Boronia.
Are you a Victoria-based creative? You can now apply to join our Artist Pool - a database for future creative opportunities and commissions managed by the Metro Tunnel Creative Program. Registrations close 31 July. See https://go.vic.gov.au/MEYMku
16.47 Pakenham/Cranbourne lines: Major delays after a police action at Yarraman.
Buses replace trains Ringwood - Lilydale from 22.30 until the last train (level-crossing works).

Careful planning needed to avoid derailing Victoria’s future July 14, 2021
According to the Intergenerational Report released in late June, the national population is projected to increase by about 50 per cent to reach 38.8 million in 2061. Any geographical breakdown is outside the report’s scope. However, where the population growth will occur is of enormous importance as it indicates where the economic benefits, and the pressure points for services and infrastructure, are likely to be.
For instance, is it to be expected that the big capital cities will resume their relentless pursuit of growth, while many regions languish, as happened in the pre-pandemic years? And if not, what actions are needed to redress imbalances in population growth and achieve better outcomes for regional communities?
The national population is projected to increase by about 50 per cent to reach 38.8 million in 2061.CREDIT:LUIS ASCUI
Questions of this kind have prompted the Rail Futures Institute and the Town and Country Planning Association of Victoria to examine the role that intercity rail passenger services can play in revitalising Victoria’s regions, particularly regional cities. It is contended that concerted efforts to boost regional growth will help to ensure a stronger, more equitable and cohesive society, and that the time for change is now.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 85 per cent of Victoria’s population growth was occurring in metropolitan Melbourne, and 15 per cent in the regions. There have been adverse consequences in both cases. For Melburnians, high population growth has contributed to urban sprawl, traffic congestion and unaffordable housing. For regional Victorians, low population growth has meant limited access to specialised services, loss of skills as young people seek opportunities elsewhere, vulnerability whenever businesses decide to rationalise services, and ongoing socio-economic disadvantage in numerous communities.
The pandemic has brought some unexpected changes. Population growth has effectively halted for the next few years. Having seen Melbourne suffer months of lockdowns, people are mindful of the risks of too many eggs in one basket. There is increased interest in regional living, in view of the perceived health and lifestyle benefits. Importantly, having discovered how to work from home using digital technology, many people are attracted to the idea of working remotely, commuting less often, and possibly living farther from their place of employment.
To date, however, migration from metropolitan to regional areas appears scattered – the product of many individual decisions, without any framework to give direction or support to a surge in regional growth. Unless this migration is recognised and properly planned for, the potential benefits for individuals, and affected regional communities, will not be fully achieved.
Many people are attracted to the idea of working remotely.CREDIT:
Population growth in the regions will require guidelines and controls to ensure positive, rather than haphazard outcomes. Planned growth in and around regional cities would be a favourable outcome, as services and infrastructure can be delivered efficiently. In contrast, dispersed settlement in peri-urban or semi-rural areas may pose a threat to agricultural land, native bushland, coastal and other sensitive areas, and create demands for services and infrastructure where provision is difficult or inefficient.
In short, careful thought and planning need to be applied to the challenge of creating a new future for Victoria’s regions. Growth projections are important when scoping the task.
Victoria’s population is currently 6.7 million (5.1 million metropolitan, and 1.6 million regional). If Victoria were to follow the national population growth trajectory, as projected in the IGR, then over the next 40 years the state’s population would grow by 3.4 million (i.e. roughly 50 per cent). As for the division between metropolitan and regional areas, what are the alternatives?
If there is no intervention, then after four to five years of instability, Victoria might revert to the pre-pandemic conditions, with Melbourne capturing 85 per cent of Victoria’s population growth (2.9 million people), and the regions 15 per cent (0.5 million). The gap between metropolitan and regional would continue to widen, and the problems identified above would worsen.
Will Victoria revert back to pre-pandemic conditions?CREDIT:PAT SCALA
A better alternative is to use the next four to five years productively, in developing plans that will sustain regional growth and gradually increase the regional share, year by year. The Victorian government could take the lead, in consultation with regional councils, businesses and communities. Implementation would gather pace as Victoria’s growth picks up. With strong commitment, the relative sizes of the regional and metropolitan populations, (currently 24 per cent: 76 per cent) could become more like 30 per cent: 70 per cent by 2061.
The long-term vision is that of a more cohesive Victoria, with interconnected cities and regions, where the economic benefits come not from agglomeration in one mega-region, but from the inter-connection of numerous regional economies with Melbourne and with one another.
Faster and more frequent intercity rail, together with improved broadband services, are essential to this vision for a more socially and economically integrated Victoria.
Dr Tim Patton, a former director of Spatial Analysis and Research in the Victorian Public Service, is Vice-President of the Town and Country Planning Association of Victoria and an associate member of Rail Futures Institute.
RELATED ARTICLE Busy afternoon traffic of Sydney’s streets and freeways.  Our aspirations for a Big Australia need a big trim
<www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/careful-planning-needed-to-avoid-derailing-victoria-s-future-20210714-p589jl.html>

Net-zero transport dream demands an infrastructure revolution. Alan Tovey, 15 July 2021
The Government has failed to provide a coherent infrastructure plan to back its green transport ambitions, insiders claim
Grant Shapps and Boris Johnson
“Is that it?” was the response of one car industry boss to the publication of the Department for Transport’s decarbonisation plans. “There’s nothing new in it.”
Titled “Decarbonising Transport: A Better, Greener Britain”, the 219-page report is packed with information about how the sector contributes to greenhouse gases.
Transport is responsible for 27pc of the UK’s emissions, with cars and vans making up around 19pc of that figure. Cleaning up the air - which includes targeting rail, maritime and aviation - would save the UK £5.3bn a year in health and social care costs, the report says.
In his introduction, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps calls “transport decarbonisation a dull way of describing something much more exciting and far-reaching. 
“It is something that fundamentally shapes our towns, our cities, our countryside, our living standards, our health, and our whole quality of life. It can shape all these things for good – or for bad.”
The automotive industry had been waiting for this - and for them it’s bad. Car makers got a shock last year when the Government announced the 2040 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was being brought forward to 2030.
They know that they have to change, but they want to know exactly how the Government is going to support and drive that change. The report didn’t deliver. 
Instead the report is what the insider called a “compendium of re-announcements”, listing previous commitments from the Government to encourage drivers to go green, rather than containing new money to make the transition. 
The problem is the transition will be hugely expensive. Major vehicle manufacturers are each committing tens of billions into transforming the businesses to produce electric vehicles.
However, just because the cars will be there, it doesn’t follow that the infrastructure required to support them will be. The Society of Motor Manufacturers (SMMT) estimates Britain needs 2.3m public charging points in place ready for the 2030 ban. Currently the UK has about 25,000 public charging points, of which 4,250 are high-speed models. 
Getting the network to a size and reliability to end range anxiety and support the one third of UK dwellings without off-street parking, where  personal chargers could be installed, has been priced at tens of billions.
The decarbonisation strategy did make a vague pledge about this network, saying the Government would “ensure the UK’s charging infrastructure network meets the demands of its users”.
The Government said it would continue to invest a previously announced £1.3bn to speed up the roll out of chargers, and support planning policies to encourage their at homes and businesses.
But Sir John Armitt, chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission, questions whether this would be enough. “Policy signals are important, and we welcome that the plan is unambiguous in its ambition to enable the end of diesel and petrol cars,” he says. 
“But the bottom line is whether, as a driver, you can feel confident that the infrastructure will be in place to enable you to switch to an electric vehicle.
“We need to see a charging infrastructure strategy with clear delivery commitments and milestones, to give consumers that confidence.”
The lack of a clear infrastructure plan did not go unnoticed in the car industry. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, says: “Achieving net zero cannot solely rely on the automotive sector. Massive investment, not least in infrastructure, is necessary and must be delivered at an accelerated pace, for which will still await plan.”
Privately, senior car industry figures are hugely disappointed at what one called a “lack of transparency” from the Government. “Someone is going to have to pay,” they say, pointing out duties on fuel and vehicle tax pump £35bn into Treasury coffers annually. The adoption of electric vehicles - which currently don’t pay road tax - will leave a massive hole in government finances. “That’s unlikely to remain and it’s probably the motorist who will have to pay, whether in electricity prices or tax.”
Indeed, the decarbonisation plan does make a passing reference to this, saying a “new road vehicle regulatory regime will be introduced to help deliver the commitment to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans and ensure significant progress to reduce emissions is made along the way”.
Also missing is a specific mention of motorists being charged per mile they drive as a way of replacing lost fuel duty.  In both cases, there is no detail which allows drivers or the industry to plan for the future.
To help end the reliance on cars, the strategy also hopes to use “nudge” theory, with some cheap tactics.  These include campaigns to make people feel safe if they opt to cycle instead of taking a car and linking travel plans with environmental impact so people can see the carbon cost of a journey. 
But these are just fiddling around the edges when the price-tag of the transformation is in the billions. The 2030 ban is coming but whether it is workable remains open to debate, says Professor David Bailey, an automotive industry expert at Birmingham University.
“What we have is a date without a plan,” he claims. “If the Government was serious about this it would make it easy and obvious to go to an electric vehicle. We’d be seeing much more in subsidies to buy them until they become as cheap as internal combustion engine cars, electric vehicles would be able to drive in bus lanes, there’d be chargers everywhere.
“Government mandated 2030 for a good reason but it’s got to bear the responsibility for making it happen.”
<www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/15/net-zero-transport-dream-demands-infrastructure-revolution>